2023 NFL Mock Draft
It's always a joy to take part in the springtime football tradition of projecting the first round of the NFL Draft.
One important note for context: there are no projected trades and these picks are representative of what I think will happen and not what should happen.
1. Panthers (from CHI): Bryce Young QB Alabama
It’s already been noted in my draft rankings that I don’t necessarily agree with this pick. But all indications are Young will be the top pick. It’s obvious that Carolina needs a long term solution at quarterback and they’ve created solid circumstances for an incoming rookie with their O-Line and the addition of Adam Thielen at receiver.
Young, honestly, will probably not amount to more than a Teddy Bridgewater-type quarterback under these circumstances. The help around him just isn’t strong enough for a guy with his kind of tendencies as a game manager. It’s a weak division, but I don’t envision him being a decade-long starter for the Panthers.
2. Texans: Will Levis QB Kentucky
It’s hard to imagine Houston not taking a quarterback. All the telegraphing publicly indicates that the Texans will go in a different direction, but it doesn’t make sense. Even with Nick Caserio saying so, it would be shocking if this team doesn’t go for a QB.
The rumor is this team likes Levis the most of any of the quarterbacks. It makes sense based on this ownership group and front office considering Levis is a high-character player with grit and plenty of physical talent. That being said, there really isn’t much help around him and Levis struggled without good skill players last year. It would take a massive leap for Levis to be the solution at QB.
3. Cardinals: Will Anderson OLB Alabama
Okay, finally a projected pick that doesn’t need to be criticized. The Cardinals need to reshape their defense. And while Anderson probably isn’t a full fledged franchise centerpiece, he will bring stability and consistency. He’s also the type of consistent, stable player that can have a magnetic effect on teammates.
The Cardinals have a lot of issues with their roster. It’s not really clear what direction this team is headed, but Anderson is a solid addition and the right use of this draft pick.
4. Colts: C.J. Stroud QB Ohio State
Stroud is the top quarterback in this class according to my board, but that still doesn’t mean he’s a lock to become a star in this league. He has some developing to do, but I love this fit for him. The Colts are a stable organization and Stroud has the talent to be successful within this infrastructure.
One huge positive is the fact this team has Jonathan Taylor in addition to a decent offensive line. Stroud will gravitate towards Michael Pittman in the same way he found Marvin Harrison Jr. last season. This is an ideal scenario for both Stroud and the Colts.
5. Seahawks (from DEN): Anthony Richardson QB Florida
For the longest time, this pick felt like a lock to be Jalen Carter if he’s available. But more recently, it sounds like Seattle really does have reservations about Carter’s character and really does want a quarterback at some point in the draft.
It’s hard to disagree with Richardson as that guy, it feels like a great scenario for him to develop behind Geno Smith. He has all the physical tools but needs the right coaching and mentorship to bring him along. After revitalizing Smith, Seattle is as good of a bet as anyone to get the most out of Richardson as a player.
6. Lions: Jalen Carter DT Georgia
It doesn’t necessarily feel like Dan Campbell and his staff would go for a player with Carter’s character questions. But the need is just too great and the opportunity to pair him with Aidan Hutchinson is too good to pass up. It’s interesting to wonder if the Lions would take a quarterback if given the chance, but in this scenario they won’t have the option.
Carter has uncertainty but he also has unbelievable upside. And with another first round pick, the Lions can afford to potentially take a risk on the most talented player in the draft
7. Raiders: Peter Skoronski OG Northwestern
The Raiders could conceivably go after Jalen Carter here, but after the Henry Ruggs fiasco it seems unlikely. Vegas also appears to be in win-now mode based on the addition of Jimmy Garoppolo. Although who can really tell after this team traded Darren Waller. Actually, given the chaotic state of this franchise under Josh McDaniel, anything’s possible.
But Skoronski makes plenty of sense. He could immediately contribute at guard with the potential to eventually move to tackle if needed.
8. Falcons: Tyree Wilson DE Texas Tech
It seems impossible the Falcons would pass up Wilson here. There’s been rumors for months that they would take him if he was available, but that was a big question in most mock drafts. It will depend on how the quarterbacks fall, but there’s still a good chance that Wilson is available here.
The Falcons desperately need to add edge rusher talent, so much so that they can afford to take a chance on Wilson and his upside.
9. Bears (from CAR): Paris Johnson Jr. OT Ohio State
A lot of people think Broderick Jones will be the pick here if he’s available. And for the record, that would be the right selection. But the new team president was former president of the Big Ten, Johnson was former teammate of the current QB and the rumors generally indicate that this will be the pick. That’s just too many signs to project anything different.
Johnson is by no means a mistake here, he has similar potential to Jones. But his tape just wasn’t as consistent as Jones in the past year. Nevertheless, Johnson can play either tackle spot and fills a major need for the Bears.
10. Eagles (from NO): Devon Witherspoon CB Illinois
If Witherspoon is available here for Philly, there’s no question in my mind that the Eagles take him. He is exactly the type of corner the team likes in terms of skillset and and his tenacious demeanor.
Witherspoon also has the versatility to potentially play in the nickel spot, which is important since the Eagles still have Bradberry and Slay. Eventually, he can move into a starting role for the team as he continues to develop.
11. Titans: Broderick Jones OT Georgia
This would be a dream scenario for the Titans considering their needs at the tackle position. Although it’s possible Jones falls outside the top ten, it still seems pretty unlikely. But it is likely that at least one of the top three offensive lineman falls to the Titans
12. Texans (from CLE): Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR Ohio State
The Texans do feel likely to make a trade on draft night, whether with the second pick or this pick. But it actually feels more likely to me that they stay here and improve the receiving corps. Smith-Njigba would be a good fit as a slot receiver in this offense alongside Nico Collins and Dalton Schultz. Those weapons would certainly help a young quarterback.
It's also not clear what else the team would even target here, which is why a trade is a possibility. But if they make a pick, I expect it to be a receiver.
13. Packers (from NYJ): Jordan Addison WR USC
The idea of the Packers taking receiver after trading Rodgers is an undeniably hilarious. For years, the team refused to take a receiver in round one while having one of the best passers in the NFL. But it does seem that the team wouldn’t have many other options with this pick. One intriguing possibility would be Tennessee’s Darnell Wright at the right tackle spot.
With no clarity on who the Packers might target, I’ll insert the option that I like most. Addison is a great fit within Green Bay’s offense, both from a personnel and scheme standpoint. He’d be a great compliment to Christian Watson and could really help Jordan Love.
14. Patriots: Darnell Wright OT Tennessee
The Patriots are always unpredictable. One sleeper possibility for this pick is Lukas Van Ness, who just fits the profile of an unconventional prospect that New England would like. But Wright just makes too much sense. The Pats love massive offensive tackles, and Wright is a mountain of man who is also a tremendous athlete. He’s been great at every step of the draft process from the season to the Senior Bowl to the combine. He’s a no brainer pick, and that’s something New England also tends to like.
The team signed Riley Reiff, but I envision the veteran taking on the role of versatile backup as Wright starts immediately for the Pats.
15. Jets (from GB): Nolan Smith OLB Georgia
It doesn’t seem like a big deal, but the trade down as part of the Rodgers deal could prove to be painful for the Jets. Ironically, it doesn’t even help the Packers as much as it just hurts New York. The Jets being behind the Patriots means they probably can’t get one of the four best offensive tackles in this draft. Given that, the Jets will probably look to make a move down and accrue more draft capital.
But if New York does a make a pick here, Nolan Smith would be a fun addition to Robert Saleh’s defense. And he actually is a very intriguing scheme fit for the versatile looks the team uses in their front seven.
16. Commanders: Christian Gonzalez CB Oregon
This is becoming a theme in the middle part of my mock draft, but this is a dream scenario for Washington. The team needs to add another player at corner, and they get a top ten talent halfway through the first round. A team might trade up to take him off the board, but it’s not totally crazy that Gonzalez could fall here.
Gonzalez is also a fantastic fit for the scheme and personnel of the Commanders and Ron Rivera. For a defense that is already the strong point of this team, they continue to fortify that secondary.
17. Steelers: Joey Porter Jr. CB Penn State
Yes, it’s a bit of cliche. It’s also not at all unreasonable that the Steelers would do this considering the team likes players with some kind of connection to the city or franchise (Kenny Pickett, James Conner). The Steelers also need a corner and Porter is the next best prospect at the position.
Pittsburgh loves physical corners with Porter’s type of game. Add that to the fact that his dad is a franchise legend and of course it makes sense they would take him.
18. Lions: Bijan Robinson RB Texas
Missing out on a corner in the first round is tough, but it’s easy to justify when the Lions get arguably two of the five best prospects in the draft. Robinson could be the finishing touch on an offense that was already expected to be even more electric with Jameson Williams getting more playing time.
Robinson would immediately be the best running back the franchise has had since Barry Sanders. That sounds like a home run.
19. Buccaneers: Lukas Van Ness DE Iowa
Tampa Bay is obviously in a state of flux as they move on from Brady and will test out Kyle Trask at QB. The outlook isn’t optimistic, so the team should take a developmental player with upside like Van Ness. Admittedly, Van Ness is not a perfect scheme fit. But he is a versatile player that can play on the edge or as five-technique in the Buccaneers’ scheme.
Van Ness needs a lot more development, but he’s a great athlete and the Bucs need to develop some younger players for the future. And he could even displace Joe Tryon on the edge in his rookie year.
20. Seahawks: Myles Murphy DE Clemson
Seattle really needs help on their defense after last season, although it’s fun to speculate about whether this team could take a receiver or tight end here. But that would be just too much of a luxury for the Seahawks, who have urgent needs. This is a team that doesn’t believe you can have too many defensive lineman and is not picky about measurables or scheme fit. And Murphy’s pedigree as a former top recruit is something that Seattle has coveted in the past.
Murphy is a prototypical 4-3 end at 6-foot-5 and 271 pounds. And although Seattle’s current defensive personnel looks different now, they were at their best when they had guys like Frank Clark and Michael Bennett wreaking havoc. Murphy is absolutely that type of player.
21. Chargers: Zay Flowers WR Boston College
If Flowers is available here, this pick is a no brainer for Los Angeles. The Chargers could use another dynamic weapon for Herbert, whether that’s a tight end or slot receiver. And although Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are great, neither receiver stretches the field with their speed and both have struggled with injuries. Flowers is a perfect compliment to both those guys and will add another dimension to this offense.
Flowers is a smart, gritty player with high character and work ethic. And his speed and quickness will make him dangerous as teams have to account for Allen and Williams.
22. Ravens: Deonte Banks CB Maryland
With the receiver position getting help with OBJ and Rashod Bateman returning, Baltimore will likely turn their attention to the secondary. There is no shortage of good options at corner, considering that is unquestionably the deepest position in this draft. But it would be surprising if the Ravens don’t draft the local product in Banks.
He fits the size and athleticism profile that the team has liked in the past, but it’s worth noting that Banks appeared to excel in zone coverage but Baltimore’s scheme is much more oriented towards man coverage. That could make him a bad fit, but he makes the most sense as the probable pick here.
23. Vikings: Will McDonald IV OLB Iowa State
This mock draft scenario is pretty disastrous for Minnesota. The team would definitely like to bring in another receiver after losing Thielen, but the top three guys are off the board and the tall Quintin Johnston isn’t really a fit. They also need corner help, but Emmanuel Forbes is not a scheme fit and any prospect who is a fit would be a pretty massive reach. The Vikings would probably trade down if that’s the case. But if they do make a pick, McDonald is a solid choice.
The Vikings could use another edge rusher even after adding Davenport. And although McDonald is undersized compared to other players in Minnesota’s scheme, he could provide much needed versatility to the front seven.
24. Jaguars: Emmanuel Forbes CB Mississippi State
The Jaguars would probably be sweating this one out, cause Forbes is an ideal fit for this team. With how light he is (166 pounds) and his aversion to physicality, Forbes is a really poor fit for the Vikings. But the Jaguars like ball-hawking corners that are aggressive and create turnovers, that’s his calling card.
After an unexpected leap forward last season, this defense needs playmakers to keep pace with the offensive growth. Forbes had 14 career interceptions, including six that were returned for touchdowns.
25. Giants: Quintin Johnston WR TCU
Another team that will be sweating out these picks is the Giants, who really need another receiver for their recently-paid quarterback Daniel Jones. Johnston is a perfect fit in terms of personnel and body-type, proving a size upgrade over the team’s other receivers. And with Wan’Dale Robinson developing, the team should be set in terms of slot guys.
Johnston provides another reliable target for Jones and with the addition of Darren Waller at tight end, the Giants suddenly have a very dangerous collection of offensive weapons.
26. Cowboys: Michael Mayer TE Notre Dame
Based on my draft board, it would be pretty absurd if Mayer falls to this spot. But I believe that teams don’t necessarily value any of these tight ends considering there’s plenty of options in later rounds and neither Mayer nor Kincaid has superstar upside. But for Dallas, who just lost Dalton Schultz, this is a dream come true.
Mayer is a plug-and-play starter who compares favorably to Cowboys legend Jason Witten. He is also a well-rounded tight end who can contribute as a blocker to the Cowboys’ all-important running attack.
27. Bills: Jahmyr Gibbs RB Alabama
It seems absurd that we could see two running backs go in the first round, but the latest rumors are that some team will move up and take Gibbs toward the end of the first round. This could be because he would be relatively cheap and would get the crucial fifth year on his rookie contract.
If it is true that Gibbs is a first-round player, the Bills make the most sense. It’s clear that Buffalo’s offense needs one more playmaker. In particular, this backfield is very stagnant and not threatening. Gibbs immediately changes that with his explosiveness and speed.
28. Bengals: Dalton Kincaid TE Utah
This might be too much of a luxury pick for Cincy, who has major needs on the offensive line. But the perceived value is probably too good to pass up and tight end is still a major need for this team. Kincaid is like a supercharged version of the team’s previous tight end, Hayden Hurst. He’s a reliable pass catcher that can also occasional contribute as a blocker from his flexed tight end spot.
And honestly, this pick would just be so much fun for an offense that is already loaded with weapons.
29. Saints (from SF): Keanu Benton DT Wisconsin
In my view, Kancey is a better pick here. But the Saints and head coach Dennis Allen are pretty rigid about drafting players with a physical profile that fits the team’s scheme. New Orleans mainly needs an edge rusher, but the options here would be B.J. Ojulari or Keion White, two guys who don’t really fit what the team needs. Benton adds depth and is a better interior rusher than any of the Saints’ current defensive tackles.
Benton is a solid player who adds depth and is consistent. He’s got prototypical size for the position and should contribute immediately.
30. Eagles: Calijah Kancey DT Pittsburgh
There’s plenty of buzz around Kancey after his impressive combine numbers. But he’s got a strange build and is kind of a tweener between defensive tackle and defensive end. It takes an open-minded and creative team to take him, but one thing is certain: he’s a fast and tenacious pass rusher that wreaks havoc on defenses. The Eagles have shown a willingness to get creative, and Kancey would add another dynamic to an already dangerous defense.
Kancey plays with great leverage as a shorter player, and would fit well within the Saints’ 4-3 defense. The Eagles don’t really need anything, so Kancey is a nice addition and one more player that opposing offenses will have to worry about.
31. Chiefs: Jonathan Mingo WR Ole Miss
Mingo is a late-riser in the draft process who’s receiving buzz. Maybe the first round is a stretch, but he has a unique skillset relative to the other receivers in this class. At 6-foot-2 and 220, he’s physical receiver and who is dynamic after the catch. Maybe it’s absurd and cliche, but he reminds teams of Deebo Samuel. That’s a high bar, but one thing that is true is there are no receivers built like he is at the top of the draft. He has impressive measurables and solid tape.
For Kansas City, Mingo is exactly the type of player that is missing from their receiving corps. Sure, Mahomes and the offense got it done anyway with a Super Bowl title, but the team needs a receiver that is not another undersized speedster. Mingo could be an impact player in this offense.